Weekly post: Wildfires
What the data tells us about Wildfires in America
Emily Irion is the Data Journalist Intern at OpenAxis and a graduate student at UCSD’s School of Global Policy & Strategy. As always, each visualization has a backlink to share or remix the chart and explore the dataset with tools for collaboration and crowdsourcing insights. Sign up for the OpenAxis beta here.
On July 7th, a fire was reported in Yosemite National Park, now known as the Washburn Fire. If you have had the chance to visit Yosemite and are familiar with the park, the fire is in the Mariposa Grove area where the beloved Giant Sequoias reside.
The Washburn Fire has burned 4,863 acres and is 58% contained at the time of writing, recently entering Sierra National Forest (you can track updates here). For reference, California's largest wildfire, the August Complex, occurred in August 2020, burning over 1 million acres (an area larger than the state of Rhode Island).
California is experiencing its driest year on record, and according to Cal Fire, there have already been 4,026 wildfire incidents in California in 2022 that have burned 27,848 acres. They have not gone unnoticed to locals. A survey conducted in July of 2021 found that 55% of Californians believe wildfires are a big problem in their area.
In the same survey, respondents were also asked their thoughts on "the most important environmental issue facing the state at that time (July 2021)." As you can see in the chart below, the issues listed are all interconnected. According to the EPA, various impacts of climate change can affect the severity and timing of the wildfire season, including temperature, precipitation, and drought. The Center for Climate and Energy Solution states that "climate change enhances the drying of organic matter in forests, and has doubled the number of large fires between 1984 and 2015 in the western United States."
Wildfires are not new in California or even on the west coast. What is new is their strength and severity. Wildfires are "unplanned fires, including lightning-caused fires, unauthorized human-caused fires, and escaped prescribed fire projects." Although the number of annual total wildfires, albeit variable, has decreased slightly over the last 30 years, the data indicates that there is a general increase in the total number of acres burned annually.
Wildfire season is here to stay – all year long.
In years past, California’s wildfire season was predominantly between May and October; however, in recent years, the season is starting earlier and extends into the winter. Some experts believe the U.S. wildfire season is now year-round. According to the USDA, the Forest Service is shifting to the concept of a “fire year.” Research shows this drastic change results from climate change producing warmer and drier conditions for fires to prosper.
The Economic Impact
It is no surprise that the cost of suppressing these wildfires has also increased in recent years.
A 2020 study on the economic impact of these fires looked at the "direct capital costs, such as buildings burning down; health costs, including those related to air pollution exposure; and indirect losses such as the economic disruption of lost hours working, as well as disruption to regional and national supply chains." They estimated the nationwide impact of California's 2018 wildfire season to be $148.5 billion in economic damage. As indicated in the chart below, there were a total of 25,760 structures burned from wildfires across the U.S in 2018, with the majority in California.
In 2021, there were nearly 6,000 structures burned, and again, most of them were in the golden state. Perhaps you are not from California, but climate change, drought, and the economic impacts of wildfires go beyond its borders. A 2020 study on the 2018 California fires found that "the majority of economic impacts related to California wildfires may be indirect and often affect industry sectors and locations distant from the fires (for example, 52% of the indirect losses—31% of total losses—in 2018 were outside of California)."
Human Impact
According to a 2020 Stanford study, “wildfire smoke is rapidly becoming a regional air pollution issue similar to acid rain and ozone in the 1980s, with massive health impacts.” A 2021 study from the University of California San Diego found that hospital visits rose more during periods of heavy wildfire smoke pollution than periods from other sources. The researchers estimate that particle pollution from wildfires might be ten times more harmful to human health than other sources.
Another trend activists and researchers are trying to understand is the impact of these wildfires on firefighters. Research shows that more firefighters die from suicide than from being in the line of duty. However, according to the DHS, there is currently no national data concerning suicide rates of firefighters. Therefore, more research is needed to understand the mental health impacts, like PTSD, for career and volunteer firefighters.
Overall, the data we do have tells us to expect more large fires in the future, and the indicators point to climate change as the source. Even direr, this expectation extends beyond California and the United States. The recent report from the United Nations, “Spreading like Wildfire,” warns that “by the end of the century, the likelihood of catastrophic wildfires events will increase by a factor of 1.31 to 1.57 (or 50%).” The report isn’t without hope; there are numerous steps society and our governments must take to minimize the damage.
Governments should audit their total wildfire costs and invest in planning, prevention, and recovery, not just response.
Governments need to share data, information, and analysis to improve forecasting and learning, as well as, include both indigenous leaders and women in disaster risk management.
Wildfires need to be placed in the same category of global humanitarian response as major earthquakes and floods.
Lastly, nearly 85 percent of wildland fires in the United States are caused by humans. These include fires resulting from campfires left unattended, the burning of debris, equipment use and malfunctions, negligently discarded cigarettes, and intentional acts of arson. If 85% are human-caused, then they are also preventable. Now more than ever, we need to live with fire prevention at the forefront of our lives.